Buyers Are Back in Charge — Except in These Suburbs

The Short Answer (May 2026)

Melbourne is in a rebalancing market. Headline clearance rates are soft, the RBA has just lifted the cash rate to 4.35% — its third hike of the year — and buyers have more leverage than they have had in eighteen months. But under that headline, pockets of the east and south-east are running well ahead of the citywide average. The opportunity right now is in knowing which pocket you are in.

Rates Are Tightening, but the Market Has Not Frozen

The RBA's May decision pushed the cash rate to 4.35% — the third straight increase this year. That has cooled headline demand. Weekend auction clearance rates have sat in the mid-50s for several weeks, well below the 60% benchmark and noticeably lower than the same time last year.

But cooled is not the same as stalled. Quality stock with realistic pricing is still selling, and selling competitively in the right pockets. Buyers are simply being more deliberate.

The South-East Growth Corridor Keeps Outperforming

The clearest trend right now is the gap between the headline market and the south-east growth corridor.

• Casey-South, Cardinia, and Whittlesea-Wallan are all sitting on annual growth between 6.2% and 6.7% (Cotality, April 2026).
• Clyde North and Officer are still attracting strong first-home-buyer demand off the back of affordability and new infrastructure, though headline price growth has cooled to around 3 to 4% annually — broadly in line with Melbourne's wider pace.
• Frankston is one of the strongest performers in Melbourne at around 13% annual growth, with a median near $850,000.

What is driving it: affordability, family-friendly infrastructure, and steady population inflow into newer estates. First home buyers and upgraders priced out of the inner ring are concentrating here, and stock levels in the infill south-east are now the tightest in Melbourne at around 1.4%.

The Middle-Ring East is a Two-Tier Story

In the established east, two things are happening at once.

• Glen Waverley, Box Hill, Mount Waverley, and Camberwell are still delivering premium results, particularly anything inside a top school zone or within walking distance of a station. Box Hill medians sit around $1.7m, Glen Waverley houses are tracking near $1.75m, and bidding competition in Hawthorn and Camberwell remains genuine when a home is well-prepared.
• Anything that feels overpriced or underdone is now sitting on the market longer than at this time last year. The gap between A-grade and average campaigns has widened.

The story is not that the east is hot or the east is slow. The east is rewarding presentation and punishing guesswork.

What Buyers Are Actually Doing

Buyer behaviour has shifted in three clear ways:

• More inspections before offers. Buyers are doing two or three walk-throughs and a lot more due diligence before committing.
• Stronger negotiation. With rates where they are, buyers are pushing back on price more aggressively, especially on listings that have passed the first 21 days.
• Quieter at auction, sharper in private negotiation. A growing share of vendors are switching strategy mid-campaign.

If you are buying right now, the leverage is real — but only if you have done the work to be ready to move when the right home appears.

What Sellers Are Actually Doing

The vendors getting strong results in May 2026 are the ones treating the campaign like a controlled launch:

• Realistic price guidance from day one — not a hopeful number that gets revised down at week three.
• Genuine presentation investment — styling, photography, and the minor works that close the gap with the renovated comparable down the road.
• A clear method strategy. Auction is still working for properties with depth of competition. For everything else, private sale is increasingly the right call.

Director's Tip: The properties getting strong results right now are not necessarily the cheapest. They are the ones priced honestly from day one and presented like the agent actually cares.

FAQ: What We Are Being Asked Most Right Now

Q: Are prices going to fall further?

Forecasts point to a modest decline across Melbourne in 2026 (ANZ has pencilled in -1.7%), with a recovery expected in 2027. But Melbourne is not one market — the south-east growth corridor and well-located middle-ring east are running ahead of the average.

Q: Should we wait for rates to drop before selling?

If you are selling and re-buying in the same market, waiting does not help — both sides move together. The bigger question is whether your home is genuinely ready to launch.

Q: Is auction still worth it?

For properties with multiple genuinely competitive buyers, yes. For anything where competition is thinner, private sale with strong negotiation usually wins. We make this call campaign-by-campaign, not as a default.

Q: Where is the best opportunity for buyers right now?

The middle-ring east on well-presented but slightly overcooked campaigns (week three and beyond), and quality stock in the south-east corridor where supply is genuinely tight.

Bottom Line

May 2026 is a market that rewards preparation and punishes assumption. Rates are higher, buyers are slower, and headline clearance numbers look soft — but the right home, in the right pocket, with the right campaign, is still getting a strong result.

Thinking of selling, or trying to read the market as a buyer? Please contact us.